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    <title>How Would You Play That?</title>
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    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009-06-12:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31</id>
    <updated>2009-11-18T00:07:43Z</updated>
    
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<entry>
    <title>Mediation as Informed Risk Management.</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/11/all-pay-auctions-sunk-costs-and-lobbying.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.47193</id>

    <published>2009-11-17T17:13:10Z</published>
    <updated>2009-11-18T00:07:43Z</updated>

    <summary> Litigation or arbitration is expensive, and the costs are increasing with the requirements for e-discovery. One dynamic that leads increased transaction actions without a corresponding benefit can be seen in the above video, the dollar auction game. A lawsuit...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>bizop</name>
        <uri>http://www.bizop.ca</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="Famous Disputes" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
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    <category term="transactioncost" label="Transaction cost" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="workproductdoctrine" label="Work-product doctrine" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
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<p>Litigation or arbitration is expensive, and the costs are increasing with the requirements for e-discovery.  One dynamic that leads increased transaction actions without a corresponding benefit can be seen in the above video, the dollar auction game.</p>

<p>A <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawsuit" title="Lawsuit" rel="wikipedia">lawsuit</a> or arbitration is what economists call an "all pay auction".  Each party to the lawsuits bids, by paying <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attorney%27s_fee" title="Attorney's fee" rel="wikipedia">legal fees</a>, for the change of winning the prize, a favorable judgment or award.</p>

<p>But people can collectively overbid, as stunningly demonstrated above.  In a dramatic example of how competitive attorney's can aggravate costs, the longest <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jury_trial" title="Jury trial" rel="wikipedia">jury trial</a> for wrongful dismissal in Ontario history lasted 8 weeks, Jack v. Women's College Hospital.  At stake was overtime for 9 month's of employment.</p>

<p>The economist's advice is not to play this type of auction.  However, this advice is not practical and mediators <a href="http://www.gpmlaw.com/professionals/peter-j-klarfeld.aspx">Peter Klarfeld</a>, <a href="http://www.jamsadr.com/lewis/">Michael K. Lewis</a>, and <a href="http://www.slk-law.com/attorneys/default.aspx?id=1155">Peter Silverman</a> have a better way to control cots and manage litigation risk: <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediation" title="Mediation" rel="wikipedia">Mediation</a>.</p>

<p>At the recent ABA Forum on Franchising, held in <a class="zem_slink" href="http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=43.6691694444,-79.3835583333&amp;spn=0.1,0.1&amp;q=43.6691694444,-79.3835583333 (Toronto)&amp;t=h" title="Toronto" rel="geolocation">Toronto</a>, part of their "Mediating Franchise Disputues" was about using mediation to control litigation risks.  (Their joint paper covers much more than a discussion about controlling costs and <a href="http://www.abanet.org/abastore/index.cfm?section=main&amp;fm=Product.AddToCart&amp;pid=CET09TBTC">the mediation paper and cd can be purchased from the ABA</a>, directly along with all the other ABA materials from the 32nd Annual Forum on Franchising.  I highly recommend the paper.)</p>

<p>Michael K. Lewis is an Adjunct Faculty member for the <a href="http://www.pon.harvard.edu/courses-and-training/harvard-negotiation-institute-teaching-faculty/">Harvard Program of Instruction for Lawyers Mediation Workshop</a>.  Lewis's colleague, Robert H. Mnookin, in his book "<a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Winning-Negotiating-Create-Disputes/dp/0674012313%3FSubscriptionId%3D0G81C5DAZ03ZR9WH9X82%26tag%3Dthbine00-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D0674012313" title="Beyond Winning: Negotiating to Create Value in Deals and Disputes" rel="amazon">Beyond Winning</a>" describes litigation or preparing for a trial that never takes place:</p>

<blockquote>"In litigation it can sometimes seem as if each side is frantically preparing for a trial that will never take place.  One side drafts a complaint, files motions, takes depositions, goes through document production, prepares for trial --all with the knowledge that it will probably settle the case.  <em>And each side knows this.</em> It is like an arms race: each side builds up an arsenal, hoping never to use it.  Each needs the arsenal to signal a readiness for battle.  But each would also benefit if both sides could agree to reduce the weapons stockpile.  The problem is that neither side wants to disarm first."</blockquote>

<p>So what type of personality does the mediator need to have to help the parties "disarm"? Lewis thinks that judges can make bad mediators because "the judge is going to give the parties a mini-trial and the push to judgment can miss out on the richness of alternative solutions."  </p>

<p>As advocates, Lewis argues, we need to "think through the business relationship, how we restructure the relationship, and to think about what the other person's business problems are and what might work for both of us."  Ideally, by doing so we would uncover sources of surplus value that are not available through the litigation process.</p>

<p>Silverman is more cautious about the prospects for mediation:<br />
<blockquote><br />
"Many franchise disputes do not offer this type of opportunity for <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surplus_value" title="Surplus value" rel="wikipedia">surplus value</a>.</p>

<p>Many disputes involve issues of quality control, royalties or lease payments the franchise can't keep up with, a build-out the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/Franchising" title="Franchising" rel="wikinvest">franchisee</a> can't afford,  a franchisee losing money who's looking to get out and get his money back, or an encroaching proposed unit.  </p>

<p>These are disputes that will likely end within a defined range of results and someone with experience and good judgment could probably give pretty good odds on where they'd end up.  </p>

<p>Thus the surplus value is the reduction of the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transaction_cost" title="Transaction cost" rel="wikipedia">transaction costs</a> and the management of risk."</blockquote></p>

<p>A recent source of higher transaction costs, the cost of revealing <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidentiality" title="Confidentiality" rel="wikipedia">confidential information</a> through a mistake in <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_discovery" title="Electronic discovery" rel="wikipedia">electronic discovery</a> was discussed in Hot Button Privilege Issues for Franchise Counsel, by Eric H. Karp and Les Wharton. </p>

<blockquote>"Document production has become an enormously time consuming and expensive undertaking. With the explosion of the use and availability of <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronically_stored_information_%28Federal_Rules_of_Civil_Procedure%29" title="Electronically stored information (Federal Rules of Civil Procedure)" rel="wikipedia">electronically stored information</a> (ESI)75, this problem has grown exponentially. It is no longer uncommon for cases to involve the disclosure of hundreds of thousands of documents involving millions of pages."</blockquote>

<blockquote>"Out of necessity, high-volume document production substantially increases the cost and effort involved in pre-production reviews of documents, to ensure that privileged materials such as those covered by the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attorney-client_privilege" title="Attorney-client privilege" rel="wikipedia">attorney-client privilege</a> and the attorney <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Work-product_doctrine" title="Work-product doctrine" rel="wikipedia">work product doctrine</a> are not released to the opponent."</blockquote>

<p>One approach outlined by Karp was to reach one of two types of agreements regrading production of documents.</p>

<blockquote>"The most common approach, generally requires the parties to use good faith efforts to cull privileged documents from their production, but also allows them to <strong>"claw-back"</strong> or take back privileged documents that were inadvertently produced. 

<p>....</p>

<p>An alternative and much more risky approach is the use of a "<strong>quick peek"</strong> production agreement under which all responsive documents are produced without any prior review for privilege. </p>

<p>Following the initial review by the receiving party, the documents are returned to the producing party which then conducts the privilege review of only those documents the opposing party designated as those it wished to receive.</blockquote>"</p>

<p>Only one <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawyer" title="Lawyer" rel="wikipedia">trial attorney</a> admitted to using the quick peek technique, and only a handful were willing to use the claw back.  All feared the possible ramifications of inadvertently disclosing privileged documents are were willing to ratchet costs up to avoid this problem.</p>

<p>But, mediation as process can be used to monitor the production process to make sure that it doesn't get out of hand, especially e-discovery.  Documents that a party had a "quick peek" at can returned to the other party as a part of a confidential mediation process and not merely an agreement between counsel.  The mediation process can be drafted in a way to both protect confidentiality and to keep costs low.</p>

<p>Silverman goes further, "Mediation agreements, custom cooperative approaches (like take a peek) or continuing "referee-mediation" can deal with trying to lower costs and insuring fairness at every stage of arbitration or court."  </p>

<p>In the end, Michael Lewis describes the best reason to use mediation: </p>

<p>"Business disputes should be looking for business solutions, and if they cannot save their business relationship, they should find an inexpensive way to terminate the relationship."</p>

<p>Mediation qualifies on all counts.</p>

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<entry>
    <title>Should We Reward Failure?</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/08/should-we-reward-failure.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.44291</id>

    <published>2009-08-13T01:00:05Z</published>
    <updated>2009-08-13T01:00:47Z</updated>

    <summary></summary>
    <author>
        <name>bizop</name>
        <uri>http://www.bizop.ca</uri>
    </author>
    
    
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<entry>
    <title>Simple Forecasts</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/07/simple-forecasts.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.44134</id>

    <published>2009-07-07T00:26:19Z</published>
    <updated>2009-07-07T00:32:10Z</updated>

    <summary> I have written about Gerd Gigerenzer&apos;s work on heuristics before, but I had not realized that Robin Hogarth has done some very important work on predictions by experts in social science. This is a terrific little video, and pay...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>bizop</name>
        <uri>http://www.bizop.ca</uri>
    </author>
    
        <category term="How Would You Play That?" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="gerdgigerenzer" label="Gerd Gigerenzer" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="heuristic" label="Heuristic" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="socialscience" label="Social Science" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
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<p>I have written about <a href="http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/gigerenzer03/gigerenzer_index.html">Gerd Gigerenzer's work on heuristics </a>before, but I had not realized that Robin <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Hogarth" title="William Hogarth" rel="wikipedia">Hogarth</a> has done some very important work on predictions by experts in <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_sciences" title="Social sciences" rel="wikipedia">social science</a>.</p>
<p>This is a terrific little video, and pay attention to what Hogarth has to say about predictions by experts: brings to mind another Robin who has doubts about <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/07/simple-forecast-models-best.html#comment-429755">experts with no track records</a>.</p>

<p></p><fieldset class="zemanta-related"><legend class="zemanta-related-title">Related articles by Zemanta</legend><ul class="zemanta-article-ul"><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://marksoper.net/2009/04/09/recommendation-engine-based-on-gut-feelings-from-likematter-blog/"> Recommendation Engine based on "Gut Feelings"? (from Likematter Blog) </a> (marksoper.net)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/03/fear_and_the_av.html">Fear and the Availability Heuristic</a> (schneier.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://crookedtimber.org/2009/07/02/against-microeconomic-imperialism/"> Against (micro)economic imperialism </a> (crookedtimber.org)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://clubtroppo.com.au/2009/06/18/why-the-hyper-rationality-of-economics-isnt-so-good-as-a-management-education/"> Why the hyper-rationality of economics isn't so good as a management education </a> (clubtroppo.com.au)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://crookedtimber.org/2009/06/29/economics-as-sociologys-other-more-temperate-version/"> Economics as Sociology's Other (More Temperate Version) </a> (crookedtimber.org)</li></ul></fieldset>



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<entry>
    <title>How Rational Are You?</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/06/how-rational-are-you.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.44071</id>

    <published>2009-06-23T15:15:28Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-23T15:49:56Z</updated>

    <summary>Image via WikipediaIn February of 2009, Tyler Cowen had a short piece on Keith Stanovich&apos;s work on IQ and rationality:Even more interesting, in my view, is that higher-IQ people are more likely to behave rationally when they are told that...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Mind, Brain, and Decisions" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
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    <category term="intelligencequotient" label="Intelligence quotient" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="keithstanovich" label="Keith Stanovich" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="socialsciences" label="Social Sciences" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<div class="zemanta-img" style="margin-top: 1em; margin-right: 1em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; float: right; display: block; width: 310px; "><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Knox_College_5218.jpg"><img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/40/Knox_College_5218.jpg/300px-Knox_College_5218.jpg" alt=":en:Knox College, University of Toronto - 59 St." style="border:none;display:block" width="300" height="402" /></a><p class="zemanta-img-attribution" style="font-size:0.8em;">Image via <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Knox_College_5218.jpg">Wikipedia</a></p></div><p>In February of 2009, <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyler_Cowen" title="Tyler Cowen" rel="wikipedia">Tyler Cowen</a> had a short piece on <a href="http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/02/papers-i-need-to-read.html">Keith Stanovich's work on IQ and rationality:</a></p><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;">Even more interesting, in my view, is that higher-IQ people are more likely to behave rationally when they are told that a rationality issue is on the table, but less so otherwise.</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br />If you are interested in issues of IQ, or for that matter overcoming bias, you should read Stanovich's work.  As noted above, higher-IQ people seem to be just as guilty of "myside bias</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote>The <a class="zem_slink" href="http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=43.6617,-79.3951&amp;spn=1.0,1.0&amp;q=43.6617,-79.3951 (University%20of%20Toronto)&amp;t=h" title="University of Toronto" rel="geolocation">University of Toronto</a> Magazine has a much longer article on Stanovich, and I have selected one part of the article for review.<blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;">Stanovich believes that the intelligence that <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient" title="Intelligence quotient" rel="wikipedia">IQ tests</a> measure is a meaningful and useful construct. He's not interested in expanding our definition of intelligence. He's happy to stick with the cognitive kind.&nbsp;</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;">What he argues is that intelligence by itself can't guarantee rational behaviour.</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br />Earlier this year, <a class="zem_slink" href="http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=41.31115,-72.92655&amp;spn=1.0,1.0&amp;q=41.31115,-72.92655 (Yale%20University)&amp;t=h" title="Yale University" rel="geolocation">Yale University</a> Press published Stanovich's book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/030012385X?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=thbine00-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=030012385X">What Intelligence Tests Miss: The Psychology of Rational Thought</a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=thbine00-20&amp;l=as2&amp;o=1&amp;a=030012385X" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />
</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;">In it, he proposes a whole range of <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognition" title="Cognition" rel="wikipedia">cognitive abilities</a> and dispositions independent of intelligence that have at least as much to do with whether we think and behave rationally.&nbsp;</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;">In other words, you can be <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence" title="Intelligence" rel="wikipedia">intelligent</a> without being rational.&nbsp;</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;">And you can be a rational thinker without being especially intelligent.</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br />Time for a pop quiz. Try to solve this problem before reading on. Jack is looking at Anne, but Anne is looking at George. Jack is married but George is not. Is a married person looking at an unmarried person?</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;">Yes      No      Cannot be determined</blockquote></blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br />More than 80 per cent of people answer this question incorrectly. If you concluded that the answer cannot be determined, you're one of them. (So was I.) The correct answer is, yes, a married person is looking at an unmarried person.</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote>I almost got this wrong, and it is important to the Stanovich thesis why I got it almost wrong.<div><br /></div><div>My background in <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_logic" title="Mathematical logic" rel="wikipedia">formal logic</a> dictates that I would translate this word problem into <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graph_theory" title="Graph theory" rel="wikipedia">graph theory</a>. &nbsp;I drew a line from J to A to G, noting at the nodes J and G the properties M and U, while the A node had a question mark. &nbsp;It was transparent to see that if the A node was M, then Anne a married person was looking at George an unmarried person, and if the A node was U, then Jack a married person was looking at Anne, an unmarried person.</div><div><br /></div><div>Of course, there are a lot of interesting observations about this little graph - mainly that the logical conclusion can only be derived when the end points have different properties. &nbsp;If Jack and George were both married, or unmarried, the answer to the question would depend on Anne's status.</div><div><br /></div><div>In the article, it is claimed we can understand why people, over 80%, make this error.</div><div><br /></div><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;">"To understand where the rationality differences between people come from, Stanovich suggests thinking of the mind as having three parts.&nbsp;<br /><br />First is the "autonomous mind" that engages in problematic cognitive shortcuts. Stanovich calls this "Type 1 processing." It happens quickly, automatically and without conscious control.&nbsp;<br /><br />The second part is the algorithmic mind. It engages in Type 2 processing, the slow, laborious, logical thinking that intelligence tests measure.</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;">The third part is the reflective mind. It decides when to make do with the judgments of the autonomous mind, and when to call in the heavy machinery of the algorithmic mind.&nbsp;<br /><br />The reflective mind seems to determine how rational you are. Your algorithmic mind can be ready to fire on all cylinders, but it can't help you if you never engage it."</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote>Stanovich has a<a href="http://web.mac.com/kstanovich/iWeb/Site/Research%20on%20Reasoning_files/Stanovich_Two_MInds.pdf"> longer article on his three mind theory, click here.</a><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://web.mac.com/kstanovich/iWeb/Site/Research%20on%20Reasoning_files/Stanovich_Two_MInds.pdf"></a>But the graph theory example isn't a convincing, for me anyways, example of a three part or three system cognitive mechanism.</div><div><br /></div><div>I am prone to formalize word problems, especially if I can use graph theory, set theory or some formal logic. &nbsp;But, I almost made a mistake - concluding that we needed to know Anne's status to solve the problem. &nbsp;Then, I wondered about that, drew the graph and came to a different conclusion. &nbsp;Nowhere in this problem solving could I detect any evidence of a type 1 automatic process - there was only a bad and better type 2 analysis. &nbsp;Only by putting pencil to paper did I get a better type 2 analysis, drawing forth some interesting and previously hidden observations about the structure of the problem.</div><div><br /></div><div>If there was any automatic type 1 process, it was the decision to employ a little graph theory, which didn't seem reflective at all. &nbsp;So I may have missed something in this example.</div><div><br /></div><div>But, the end, I think Tyler Cowen is right about the value of reading Keith Stanovich, and his <a href="http://web.mac.com/kstanovich/iWeb/Site/Research%20on%20Reasoning.html">website on reasoning is click here.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://web.mac.com/kstanovich/iWeb/Site/Research%20on%20Reasoning.html"></a>Related articles by Zemanta<blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote></div><fieldset class="zemanta-related"><ul class="zemanta-article-ul"><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://r.zemanta.com/?u=http%3A//www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/5479138/Girl-two-with-IQ-of-160-praised-for-wonderful-imagination.html&amp;a=5482839&amp;rid=d8070c84-fd9f-4ed8-982d-5245d66a5b0c&amp;e=76aed95a2fa320662d95d2d49a027896"> Girl two with IQ of 160 praised for 'wonderful imagination' </a> (telegraph.co.uk)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-science-of-economic-bubbles"> The Science of Economic Bubbles and Busts </a> (scientificamerican.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=letters-feb-09">Readers Respond on "The Search for Intelligence"</a> (sciam.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://r.zemanta.com/?u=http%3A//www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/25/education-policy-academia-iq-tests&amp;a=3385361&amp;rid=d8070c84-fd9f-4ed8-982d-5245d66a5b0c&amp;e=7211ab041897593dddff0c2ccf699a1b">Soft skills and starters for 10</a> (guardian.co.uk)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://r.zemanta.com/?u=http%3A//abcnews.go.com/Technology/AheadoftheCurve/story%3Fid%3D7814344%26page%3D1&amp;a=5535870&amp;rid=d8070c84-fd9f-4ed8-982d-5245d66a5b0c&amp;e=fbc5f8017102b88c6a84e6942fdb98c6"> How Smart Are You? IQ Test Scams Facebook Users </a> (abcnews.go.com)</li></ul></fieldset>



<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top:10px;height:15px"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" href="http://reblog.zemanta.com/zemified/09f505bc-4571-4ada-bb84-26aa8631e9b8/" title="Reblog this post [with Zemanta]"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" src="http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=09f505bc-4571-4ada-bb84-26aa8631e9b8" alt="Reblog this post [with Zemanta]" style="border:none;float:right" /></a><span class="zem-script more-related pretty-attribution"><script type="text/javascript" src="http://static.zemanta.com/readside/loader.js" defer="defer"></script></span></div>]]>
        
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<entry>
    <title>Why did books replace scrolls? </title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/06/why-did-books-replace-scrolls.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.44062</id>

    <published>2009-06-22T14:13:41Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-22T14:22:16Z</updated>

    <summary>Image by Michael Simmons via FlickrAl Roth raises an interesting point about the competition between books and scrolls., the difference between a random access device and sequential access device.Why did the modern form of the book, the codex, with pages...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="Books" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="amazonelasticcomputecloud" label="Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="amazonkindle" label="Amazon Kindle" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="book" label="Book" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="printingpress" label="Printing press" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="publishing" label="Publishing" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<div class="zemanta-img" style="margin-top: 1em; margin-right: 1em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; float: right; display: block; width: 250px; "><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/55378884@N00/2425032915"><img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3038/2425032915_b467eca55d_m.jpg" alt="Amazon Kindle" style="border:none;display:block" width="240" height="180" /></a><p class="zemanta-img-attribution" style="font-size:0.8em;">Image by <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/55378884@N00/2425032915">Michael Simmons</a> via Flickr</p></div><a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alvin_Roth" title="Alvin Roth" rel="wikipedia">Al Roth</a> raises an interesting point about <a href="http://marketdesigner.blogspot.com/2009/06/why-did-books-replace-scrolls-random.html">the competition between books and scrolls.</a>, the difference between a random access device and sequential access device.<br /><br /><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;">Why did the modern form of the book, the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Codex" title="Codex" rel="wikipedia">codex</a>, with pages bound together on a spine, replace pages sewn together and rolled up in a <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scroll" title="Scroll" rel="wikipedia">scroll</a>?</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;">Today, the term codex is mostly used for old, hand-written books that predate the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printing_press" title="Printing press" rel="wikipedia">printing press</a>.</blockquote><blockquote class="webkit-indent-blockquote" style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><br /></blockquote>The importance of this debate is not historical: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/19/AR2009061900731.html?hpid=news-col-blog">the Kindle</a> and other e-books are scrolls and not books.<div><br /></div><div>The creation of a book, with chapters and pages, is different than creating a scroll of information.</div><div><br /></div><div>Some obvious differences are: you can tell when you are coming to the end of a chapter, and in some fiction forms you look forward to some twist in the plot; all of this can be established by a quick glance at how many pages there are to this chapter. &nbsp;You could do something similar with search on a scroll, but it isn't the same <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interaction" title="Interaction" rel="wikipedia">physical interaction</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>Chapters, outlines, and numbered paragraphs make arguments easier to follow. &nbsp;Are these concepts related only to random access devices, ie books?</div><div><br /></div><fieldset class="zemanta-related"><legend class="zemanta-related-title">Related articles by Zemanta</legend><ul class="zemanta-article-ul"><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.crunchgear.com/2009/06/20/dont-be-surprised-if-amazon-has-to-raise-the-price-of-kindle-books/"> Don't be surprised if Amazon has to raise the price of Kindle books </a> (crunchgear.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://randomthougts101.blogspot.com/2009/06/printing-press-as-agent-of-change.html"> The printing press as an agent of change </a> (randomthougts101.blogspot.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.nettiehartsock.com/2009/06/16/bravo-for-bezos/"> Bravo for Bezos! </a> (nettiehartsock.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://mediabullseye.com/mb/2009/06/the-kindle-and-media-mini-evol.html"> The Kindle and Media Mini-Evolutions </a> (mediabullseye.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.revenews.com/andrewwee/how-ebooks-and-digital-publishing-will-disrupt-traditional-book-publishing/">How eBooks and Digital Publishing will Disrupt Traditional Book Publishing</a> (revenews.com)</li></ul></fieldset>

<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top:10px;height:15px"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" href="http://reblog.zemanta.com/zemified/f822b9fa-d559-43c5-b1f4-81a57e0b3839/" title="Reblog this post [with Zemanta]"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" src="http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=f822b9fa-d559-43c5-b1f4-81a57e0b3839" alt="Reblog this post [with Zemanta]" style="border:none;float:right" /></a><span class="zem-script more-related pretty-attribution"><script type="text/javascript" src="http://static.zemanta.com/readside/loader.js" defer="defer"></script></span></div>]]>
        
    </content>
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<entry>
    <title>Neat Calcluations</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/06/neat-calcluations.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.44059</id>

    <published>2009-06-19T17:12:10Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-19T17:13:16Z</updated>

    <summary> Very interesting use of base 2 calculations, long before computers....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="How Would You Play That?" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<object width="500" height="405"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube-nocookie.com/v/Nc4yrFXw20Q&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b&border=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube-nocookie.com/v/Nc4yrFXw20Q&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="500" height="405"></embed></object>
<p>Very interesting use of base 2 calculations, long before computers.</p> ]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>New Website</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/06/new-design-launched-using-movable-type.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.41290</id>

    <published>2009-06-12T16:41:38Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-12T17:33:43Z</updated>

    <summary><![CDATA[Image via CrunchBaseOur web site is sporting a new look and feel thanks to Movable Type and the Professional Template Set.&nbsp;The Professional Template Set makes it possible for just about anyone to get up and running with a new web...]]></summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<div class="zemanta-img" style="margin-top: 1em; margin-right: 1em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; float: right; display: block; width: 257px; "><a href="http://www.crunchbase.com/product/movable-type"><img src="http://www.crunchbase.com/assets/images/resized/0001/4631/14631v4-max-450x450.png" alt="Image representing Movable Type as depicted in..." style="border:none;display:block" width="247" height="66" /></a><p class="zemanta-img-attribution" style="font-size:0.8em;">Image via <a href="http://www.crunchbase.com">CrunchBase</a></p></div><p>Our web site is sporting a new look and feel thanks to <a href="http://www.movabletype.com/">Movable Type</a> and the Professional Template Set.&nbsp;</p><p>The Professional Template Set makes it possible for just about anyone to get up and running with a new web site using Movable Type.</p><p>&nbsp;It is literally as easy as just a few clicks. Just pick a new for your web site, select the Professional Template Set and publish. Then viola! a new web site.&nbsp;</p><p><br /></p><fieldset class="zemanta-related"><legend class="zemanta-related-title">Related articles by Zemanta</legend><ul class="zemanta-article-ul"><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.searchengineguide.com/mike-moran/where-should-i-host-my-blog.php"> Where should I host my blog? </a> (searchengineguide.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.mikemoran.com/biznology/archives/2009/04/where_should_i_host_my_blog.html"> Where should I host my blog? </a> (mikemoran.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.blogherald.com/2009/02/16/movable-type-monday-a-photo-gallery-theme-and-an-open-thread/">Movable Type Monday: A Photo Gallery Theme and an Open Thread</a> (blogherald.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/sponsors_post_7june09.php"> 12 Companies Targeting Early Tech Adopters </a> (readwriteweb.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.blogherald.com/2009/04/21/movable-type-monday-comment-via-twitter-and-htaccess-hacks/"> Movable Type Monday: Comment via Twitter and .htaccess Hacks </a> (blogherald.com)</li></ul></fieldset>

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    </content>
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<entry>
    <title>Franchise Advertising in the 21st Century</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/06/franchise-advertising-in-the-2.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.44039</id>

    <published>2009-06-11T11:27:44Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-12T16:46:31Z</updated>

    <summary> At the recent American Association of Franchisees and Dealers, Don Sniegowski gave a talk on how an Independent Franchisee Association could use the social media tools to establish its presence, and introduced a number of business models. The premise...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="How Would You Play That?" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="advertising" label="Advertising" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="business" label="Business" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="businessmodel" label="Business model" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="franchising" label="Franchising" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="marketingandadvertising" label="Marketing and Advertising" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="massmedia" label="Mass media" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="newspaper" label="Newspaper" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="onlineadvertising" label="Online advertising" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="sethgodin" label="Seth Godin" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="television" label="Television" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/6CqRcCHk_Pc&amp;color1=0xb1b1b1&amp;color2=0xcfcfcf&amp;feature=player_embedded&amp;fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/6CqRcCHk_Pc&amp;color1=0xb1b1b1&amp;color2=0xcfcfcf&amp;feature=player_embedded&amp;fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
<p>At the recent American Association of Franchisees and Dealers,<a href="http://www.bluemaumau.org/user/don_sniegowski"> Don Sniegowski</a> gave a talk on how an Independent <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/Franchising" title="Franchising" rel="wikinvest">Franchisee</a> Association could use the social media tools to establish its presence, and introduced a number of <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_model" title="Business model" rel="wikipedia">business models</a>.</p>
<p>The premise behind our talk was that franchise networks, especially in the <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.qsrinternational.com" title="QSR International" rel="homepage">QSR</a> and Hotel industry, had ridden the wave of four large <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect" title="Network effect" rel="wikipedia">network effects</a> starting in the 1950's: national highways, national free radio and <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television" title="Television" rel="wikipedia">TV</a> broadcasts, national <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advertising" title="Advertising" rel="wikipedia">advertising</a>, and <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.wikinvest.com/industry/Newspapers" title="Newspapers" rel="wikinvest">newspapers</a> as aggregrators.</p>
<p>Each of these networks had very entry costs, and once a network was established it became monopolistic.</p>
<p>Advertising was one of the main beneficiaries of these network effects, and QSR and Hotel franchise systems took great advantage, and used what <a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.sethgodin.com/" title="Seth Godin" rel="homepage">Seth Godin</a> calls, interruption marketing on a <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_media" title="Mass media" rel="wikipedia">mass</a> scale very successfully, until about ten years ago.</p>
<p>This very clever video is a succinct description of the fall of big advertising in the face of the newest networks - online advertising.</p>
<p>Thanks to Algorithmic Game for the pointer to the video.</p>
<fieldset class="zemanta-related"><legend class="zemanta-related-title">Related articles by Zemanta</legend><ul class="zemanta-article-ul"><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://ac-idealog.blogspot.com/2009/05/publishing-profitably-rather-than-just.html"> Publishing profitably rather than just publishing </a> (ac-idealog.blogspot.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://kylelacy.com/10-reasons-you-should-not-be-on-social-media/"> 10 Reasons You Should Not Be On Social Media </a> (kylelacy.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://tedshelton.blogspot.com/2009/03/replacing-anti-social-marketing.html">Replacing ANTI-Social Marketing</a> (tedshelton.blogspot.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.advancingwomen.com/wordpress/how-to-gain-insulation-from-competition-foster-a-tribe/"> How To Gain Insulation From Competition: Foster A Tribe </a> (advancingwomen.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://sharemarketing.wordpress.com/2009/03/30/just-so-you-know-tv-isnt-dead/">Just so you know, TV isn't dead</a> (sharemarketing.wordpress.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://themindstorms.blogspot.com/2009/05/is-online-advertising-overrated.html"> Is Online Advertising Overrated? </a> (themindstorms.blogspot.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://donaldryan.net/2009/06/03/quoted-seth-godin/"> Quoted-Seth Godin </a> (donaldryan.net)</li></ul></fieldset>



<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top:10px;height:15px"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" href="http://reblog.zemanta.com/zemified/d6884529-8313-4e65-aaa3-1e48327ed830/" title="Reblog this post [with Zemanta]"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" src="http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=d6884529-8313-4e65-aaa3-1e48327ed830" alt="Reblog this post [with Zemanta]" style="border:none;float:right"></a><span class="zem-script more-related pretty-attribution"><script type="text/javascript" src="http://static.zemanta.com/readside/loader.js" defer="defer"></script></span></div>]]>
        
    </content>
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<entry>
    <title>Great New Slide Share Option</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/06/great-new-slide-share-option.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.44027</id>

    <published>2009-06-07T16:00:45Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-12T16:46:31Z</updated>

    <summary> | View | Upload your own This is going to make a lot of those orphan slide shows disappear - either add your voice or you won&apos;t be heard....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<img style="visibility:hidden;width:0px;height:0px;" border=0 width=0 height=0 src="http://counters.gigya.com/wildfire/IMP/CXNID=2000002.0NXC/bT*xJmx*PTEyNDQzOTc2MDUyNTAmcHQ9MTI*NDM5NzYwOTE3MSZwPTEwMTkxJmQ9Jmc9MiZ*PSZvPTEzYjcyMTYxMjZhZTRkMzNhYzRlZGQxZWNkNjAzYTZkJm9mPTA=.gif" /><div style="width:425px;text-align:left" id="__ss_82836"><object style="margin:0px" height="355" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://static.slideshare.net/swf/ssplayer2.swf?doc=slidecasting-1013073"/><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"/><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"/><embed src="http://static.slideshare.net/swf/ssplayer2.swf?doc=slidecasting-1013073" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="355"></embed></object><div style="font-size:11px;font-family:tahoma,arial;height:26px;padding-top:2px;"><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/?src=embed"><img src="http://static.slideshare.net/swf/logo_embd.png" style="border:0px none;margin-bottom:-5px" alt="SlideShare"/></a> | <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/jboutelle/slidecasting-101" title="View this slideshow on SlideShare">View</a> | <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/upload">Upload your own</a></div></div>
<p>This is going to make a lot of those orphan slide shows disappear - either add your voice or you won't be heard.</p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Are Stupid Franchisor Marketers Made or Born?</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/06/are-stupid-franchisor-marketer.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.44017</id>

    <published>2009-06-04T13:39:09Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-12T16:46:30Z</updated>

    <summary> Funny video, hat tip to the Copywriting Maven, and B2B Macro Mind for this video on marketing....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="How Would You Play That?" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/cH9vcZO9SKw&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/cH9vcZO9SKw&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
<p>Funny video, hat tip to the <a href="http://www.copywritingmaven.com/2009/06/04/are-you-a-stupid-marketer/">Copywriting Maven</a>, and <a href="http://www.chooseamc.com/wordpress/?p=154">B2B Macro Mind </a>for this video on marketing.]]>
        
    </content>
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<entry>
    <title>Thinking Economists</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/06/thinking-economists.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.44013</id>

    <published>2009-06-02T22:19:46Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-12T16:46:30Z</updated>

    <summary>Greg Mankiw, an economist at Harvard, answers the following question from David Brooks:&quot;I was having dinner with a journalist last night and he mentioned that he was finding that many of his best sources on the crisis teach at B...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="How Would You Play That?" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="economic" label="Economic" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="gregmankiw" label="Greg Mankiw" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="ngregorymankiw" label="N. Gregory Mankiw" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="socialscience" label="Social Science" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<div class="zemanta-rich" style="margin-top: 1em; margin-right: 1em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; float: right; display: block; width: 310px; "><object width="300" height="242"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/VVp8UGjECt4&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><paramname="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/VVp8UGjECt4&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="300" height="242"></embed></paramname="allowscriptaccess"></object></div><p><a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/06/are-b-school-economists-different.html" mce_href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/06/are-b-school-economists-different.html" style="">Greg Mankiw</a>, an economist at <a class="zem_slink" href="http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=42.3744444444,-71.1169444444&amp;spn=1.0,1.0&amp;q=42.3744444444,-71.1169444444 (Harvard%20University)&amp;t=h" title="Harvard University" rel="geolocation">Harvard</a>, answers the following question from David Brooks:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px; ">"I was having dinner with a <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Journalist" title="Journalist" rel="wikipedia">journalist</a> last night and he mentioned that he was finding that many of his best sources on the crisis teach at B schools, not Econ Departments."<br></p><p style="">Mankiw answers as follows:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px; ">I don't know of any hard data to establish whether journalists are more likely to cite economists in <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_school" title="Business school" rel="wikipedia">business schools</a> than those in <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics" title="Economics" rel="wikipedia">economics</a> departments, but I can believe it might be the case. </p><p style="padding-left: 30px; ">I know a lot of economists in both places, and I think it is true that, on average, economists in business schools have a more practical and <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empirical" title="Empirical" rel="wikipedia">empirical</a> approach to the field than do those in economics departments.</p><p style="">Hmm, the obvious answer should have been: a) economists still cannot tell you what caused the Great Depression, b) nobody cares about casual explanations in economics, and c) the best story tellers are to be found in business schools.</p><fieldset class="zemanta-related"><legend class="zemanta-related-title">Related articles by Zemanta</legend><ul class="zemanta-article-ul"><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://r.zemanta.com/?u=http%3A//www10.nytimes.com/2009/05/24/business/economy/24view.html%3F_r%3D5%26partner%3Drss%26amp%3Bemc%3Drss&amp;a=5145400&amp;rid=b77471e3-8971-4d7e-bf11-f500181c3630&amp;e=25ce49d21e19ec78a679d88c5f9ab8a8"> Economic View: That Freshman Course Won't Be Quite the Same </a> (nytimes.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://r.zemanta.com/?u=http%3A//www10.nytimes.com/2009/05/31/business/31backpage-ECONOMICS101_LETTERS.html%3F_r%3D5%26partner%3Drss%26amp%3Bemc%3Drss&amp;a=5304632&amp;rid=b77471e3-8971-4d7e-bf11-f500181c3630&amp;e=b0cf4c40a0ab7a4aa15903521af1c969"> Letters: Letters: Economics 101, Adjusted for Events </a> (nytimes.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/03/022981.php">A Mankiw-Krugman wager?</a> (powerlineblog.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/05/textbook-competiton-results.html"> Textbook Contest - Results </a> (marginalrevolution.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://hermenaut.org/2009/05/15/greg-mankiw-too-big-to-fail/"> Greg Mankiw: too big to fail? </a> (hermenaut.org)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/how-to-fix-business-schools/2009/04/the-economists-have-it-right.html"> The Economists Have It Right </a> (blogs.harvardbusiness.org)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/how-to-fix-business-schools/2009/04/do-economists-breed-greed-and.html"> Do Economists Breed Greed and Guile? </a> (blogs.harvardbusiness.org)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/how-to-fix-business-schools/2009/04/fix-the-bschool-imbalance.html"> Academics: Get Real! </a> (blogs.harvardbusiness.org)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/03/more-navel-gazing-from-academic-economists/"> More Navel-Gazing from Academic Economists </a> (freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com)</li></ul></fieldset>

<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top:10px;height:15px"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" href="http://reblog.zemanta.com/zemified/b77471e3-8971-4d7e-bf11-f500181c3630/" title="Reblog this post [with Zemanta]"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" src="http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=b77471e3-8971-4d7e-bf11-f500181c3630" alt="Reblog this post [with Zemanta]" style="border:none;float:right"></a><span class="zem-script more-related pretty-attribution"><script type="text/javascript" src="http://static.zemanta.com/readside/loader.js" defer="defer"></script></span></div>]]>
        
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<entry>
    <title>Winner&apos;s Curse? Seth Godin on Auctions</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/06/winners-curse.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.41952</id>

    <published>2009-06-02T18:10:20Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-12T16:42:28Z</updated>

    <summary>Image via WikipediaSeth Godin has wondered if the the winner of auctions usually bid irrationally high or too much. &quot;The only thing worse than losing a big-time auction is winning one. If you win, you feel like a chump because everyone else...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="How Would You Play That?" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="auction" label="Auction" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="auctions" label="auctions" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="economic" label="Economic" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="psychology" label="psychology" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="richardthaler" label="Richard Thaler" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="sethgodin" label="Seth Godin" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="winnerscurse" label="winner&apos;s curse" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<div class="zemanta-img" style="margin-top: 1em; margin-right: 1em; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; float: right; display: block; width: 310px; "><a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Auction_Tsukiji_fishmarket.jpg"><img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b8/Auction_Tsukiji_fishmarket.jpg/300px-Auction_Tsukiji_fishmarket.jpg" alt="Tuna auction at the Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo" style="border:none;display:block" width="300" height="185"></a><p class="zemanta-img-attribution" style="font-size:0.8em;">Image via <a href="http://commons.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Auction_Tsukiji_fishmarket.jpg">Wikipedia</a></p></div><p><a class="zem_slink" href="http://www.sethgodin.com/" title="Seth Godin" rel="homepage">Seth Godin</a> has wondered if the <a href="http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2007/05/thinking_about__1.htm" mce_href="http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2007/05/thinking_about__1.htm">the winner of auctions usually bid irrationally high or too much</a>. <br></p><p>"The only thing worse than losing a big-time <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auction" title="Auction" rel="wikipedia">auction</a> is winning one. </p><p>If you win, you feel like a chump because everyone else in the world dropped out before you. </p><p>Which is why, if you ever sell something big at auction, you need to bend over backwards to pleasantly surprise the purchaser. </p><p>It's the only way to overcome auction-buyer's remorse."</p><p>The <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics" title="Economics" rel="wikipedia">economics</a> behind action-buyer's was researched almost 25 years ago.  In 1992, <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Thaler" title="Richard Thaler" rel="wikipedia">Richard Thaler</a> re-published a series of articles about anomalies in economics. (<a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaler" title="Thaler" rel="wikipedia">Thaler</a> <a href="http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/richard.thaler/research/articles/1-Winners_Curse.pdf" mce_href="http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/richard.thaler/research/articles/1-Winners_Curse.pdf">published</a> his article entitled the "Winner's Curse" in 1988.)</p>
<p>In brief, Thaler's point can be understood as follows. </p><p>Why does buyer's regret exist? Why do the winner's of auctions or mergers feel that they have overpaid in the end?  </p><p>Thaler had an interesting observation.</p>
<p>Consider the following <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_game" title="Card game" rel="wikipedia">card game</a>. </p><p>Player A is dealt one card, from ten cards -the ace to the ten. Player B must make one bid for A's card. </p><p>The value to B of winning A's card is $10 x 150% of the face value of the card. </p><p>The value to A is just $10 x the face value of the card. </p><p>So, for example, a winning bid for "card 6" gives B a return of $90 and A a return of $60. Finally, if A shows his card to B, B may take the card without paying for it.</p>
<p>What should B on average bid for A's card? Well, you might think that since on average the return is between $15 and $150, then B should bid around $60 or $65. </p><p>However, Thaler points out that as the game is set up, B should never bid! Why? Well, any bid by B that is accepted by A must be for more than the card is worth, otherwise A would not accept the bid. </p><p>For example, suppose A accepts a bid of $30, then his card must be a 1 or 2, which on average produces ($15 + $30)/2 return, or $22.50, to B. </p><p>Eventually, B should go broke playing the game.  This is a simple two person demonstration of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/winner's_curse" mce_href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/winner's_curse">winner's curse</a>, and the same result holds for larger auctions.</p><p>  There is a <a href="http://www.gametheory.net/Mike/applets/WinnerCurse/" mce_href="http://www.gametheory.net/Mike/applets/WinnerCurse/">vey nice applet by Mike Shor</a> which demontrates this at gametheory.net
</p><p>Thaler argues that rational individuals would not play this auction.</p>
<p>But I believe that Thaler is wrong and this is a completely unsatisfactory analysis, as far as it goes. </p><p>The  possible joint gain is always positive not matter what A is dealt. For example, suppose A is dealt the 4, then A could get  $50 = $40 + $10 and B , if B could be convinced to bid exactly 4 and split the surplus equally, $60 - $40,  with A. </p><p> B can achieve $10 by coordinating with A.  Can they ever reach this coordinated result?  If they don't, A will get $40 and B nothing.</p>
<p>I don't know if they can, but I do know that social and economic life is as much about coordination as it is about competition, the reason we have four way stops. </p>
<p>So if you were A holding the 4, how would you respond to a bid by B for $60? </p><p>Take the money and run, or point out that the "price tag" on the card is <span mce_name="strong" mce_style="font-weight: bold;" style="font-weight: bold;" class="Apple-style-span">only</span> $50 and do the deal at the lower price? If there is a price tag, then both parties have the chance of reaching the cooridinated outcome, otherwise they may well miss out out on the joint gain.</p>
<p>I suspect that there is a huge overall advantage to an economy which largely employs the take it or leave <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pricing_strategies" title="Pricing strategies" rel="wikipedia">pricing strategy</a>, over the let's bid or auction on everything at different prices.</p><p>  Is this a clash of economic civilizations?<br></p><p></p><p style="" id="">From the WSJ, on June 2, 2009 about <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fish_market" title="Fish market" rel="wikipedia">fish market</a> auctions.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px; " id="">"White shoppers would fare better in a fish market with fixed and publicly displayed prices, Graddy and Hall conclude.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px; " id="">Here "the inelastic white customers pay lower prices, purchase larger quantities of fish, and make more frequent purchases." On the flip side, the more elastic Asian buyers would end up paying more and buying less.</p><p id="" style="padding-left: 30px; ">So how could <a class="zem_slink" href="http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=43.0,-75.0&amp;spn=1.0,1.0&amp;q=43.0,-75.0 (New%20York)&amp;t=h" title="New York" rel="geolocation">New York</a>'s fish shoppers be in the dark for so long over this? Easy, the report says, they rarely mix with each other."</p><p></p><fieldset class="zemanta-related"><legend class="zemanta-related-title">Related articles by Zemanta</legend><ul class="zemanta-article-ul"><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/06/auctions-and-politicians.html"> Auctions and Politicians </a> (marginalrevolution.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/01/auction-aversion/"> Auction Aversion </a> (freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://financegeek.com/how-to-read-the-wsj-for-free-online/"> How To Read The WSJ For Free Online </a> (financegeek.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://www.lockergnome.com/kentlewis/2009/05/31/seth-godin-an-interview-with-author-of-tribes/"> Seth Godin: An Interview with Author of Tribes </a> (lockergnome.com)</li><li class="zemanta-article-ul-li"><a href="http://firedoglake.com/2009/04/05/fdl-book-salon-welcomes-richard-thaler-nudge-improving-decisions-about-health-wealth-and-happiness/"> FDL Book Salon Welcomes Richard Thaler - Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness </a> (firedoglake.com)</li></ul></fieldset>

<p></p>

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<div class="zemanta-pixie" style="margin-top:10px;height:15px"><a class="zemanta-pixie-a" href="http://reblog.zemanta.com/zemified/8a1f549c-5d32-473a-9f8b-9d379382e592/" title="Reblog this post [with Zemanta]"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" src="http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=8a1f549c-5d32-473a-9f8b-9d379382e592" alt="Reblog this post [with Zemanta]" style="border:none;float:right"></a><span class="zem-script more-related pretty-attribution"><script type="text/javascript" src="http://static.zemanta.com/readside/loader.js" defer="defer"></script></span></div>]]>
        
    </content>
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<entry>
    <title>What can IndFA&apos;s Learn from Harvard?</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/06/what-can-indfas-learn-from-har.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.44012</id>

    <published>2009-06-02T14:00:55Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-12T16:46:30Z</updated>

    <summary>We have all heard the term &quot;win win&quot;, but what does it really mean? Bob Mnookin talks about the Program on Negotiation, an executive training program at Harvard. &quot;When you&apos;re mired in a dispute, it&apos;s natural to focus on differences....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="How Would You Play That?" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="harvarduniversity" label="Harvard University" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="programonnegotiation" label="Program on Negotiation" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<p>We have all heard the term "win win", but what does it really mean? Bob Mnookin talks about the <a href="http://www.pon.harvard.edu/daily/business-negotiations/how-an-indie-pop-band-used-mutual-gains-negotiation-to-keep-their-name/">Program on Negotiation</a>, an executive training program at Harvard.</p>
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<p></p>
<p>
<blockquote style="margin-right: 0px">
<p>"When you're mired in a dispute, it's natural to focus on differences.</p>
<p>But negotiation experts at Harvard University suggest looking for hidden similarities instead. </p>
<p>Identifying shared interests that aren't competitive can pave the way to a solution that benefits all parties, Harvard authorities recommend.</p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
<p>
<p>The Harvard Program on Negotiation specializes in win-win solutions to disputes, even ones the parties have written off as intractable.</p>
<p>Success is all in the mindset, Harvard experts say. </p>
<p>Rather than viewing the matter as an "intractable" dispute, view it as a business deal - then pursue it as you would a deal, looking for ways to create value."</blockquote>
<p></p>
<p>
<p>More effective communication, in my opinion, is the critical skill set that IndFA's have to obtain in order effectively collaborate with the franchisor. Mnookin , and the entire PON program, has an emphasis on managing the tension between creating and claiming value, or what he calls an undue focus on distributive bargaining. </p>
<p></p>
<p>
<p>Mnookin describes the seminar as a practical learning, complete with training and practical applications.</p>
<p></p>
<p>
<p>One thing not made clear in this short video, is the range of techniques for dealing with interests that are different and not shared.</p>
<p></p>
<p>
<p>But the overall emphasis on focusing on disputes as business deals before they become litigation files is an important emphasis.</p>
<p></p>
<p>
<p>It will require different types of skills than transactional or trial lawyers typically have. Bargaining in the shadow of franchising law and contract requires more than simply an understanding of legal cases.</p>
<p></p>
<p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.pon.harvard.edu/">Program on Negotiation</a> has a website, and there are a number of interesting free resources about effective communication and negotiation. Sign up at the site and get negotiation tips by email.</p>
<p>Here is one of my favourite examples showing why it is hard to create value, when claiming value dominates. The example is the dollar auction game, invented by Professor Martin Shubik. (<a href="http://jme.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/26/1/56">Keith Murnighan has played this game</a> with executives, always making money.)</span></p>
<p>Here is the set-up, one of the easier set-ups to analyze. 
<p>Mr. Auctioneer proposes to auction off a $20.00 bill to Mr. Clever and Ms. Swift. The winning bid gets the $20.00, but the loser has to throw in the value of his or her bid. 
<p>For example, if Mr. Clever bids $5, and Ms. Swift's losing bid was $4, then Mr. Clever gets the $20.00 for $5, but Mr. Auctioneer also gets $4 from Ms. Swift. 
<p>Each player has to bid at least once. 
<p>So how does the betting go, as between Mr. Clever and Ms. Swift? 
<blockquote style="margin-right: 0px">
<p>Well, suppose Ms. Swift jumps out first with a bid of $2, to which Mr. Clever responds with $2.50. 
<p>Ms. Swift, right on the mark, goes to $5.00, but Clever counters with $5.25.</span> 
<p>Swift jumps to $10.00; Clever counters with $10.10.</span> Swift takes a pause and jumps to $19.00; Clever takes a longer pause and then cleverly bids $20.00 and grins at Swift. 
<p>Swift is now not living up to her name, because after much reflection she realizes that if she passes now, she is out $19.00, whereas if she bids $20.50, and is the winning bid, then she will only be out 50 cents - and so she bids $20.50 for a $20.</span>00 bill. 
<p>Mr. Clever realizes, quickly, the strategic situation also and ventures a cautious $21.00 - better to lose $1 than $20.00.</span></blockquote>
<p>Our heroes eventually end up paying Mr. Auctioneer somewhere between $50 and $60 for a $20.00 bill, sadly vowing never to play this stupid game again, until next time that they are in this situation and don't recognize it, in an expensive lawsuit perhaps where legal costs are thrown away. 
<p>This real illusion has been played out many times in experimental games and the conclusion appears to be: don't play this game. You cannot buy a $20.00 bill for less than $50.00? But, that sounds crazy. 
<p>Well let's debug this illusion with a bit of game theoretic logic. 
<p>First, if the Swift and Clever could act as one person, then Swift could bid 1 cent, Clever bid 2 cents, and Swift could pass, letting Clever obtain $20.00 for a net profit of $19.98. 
<p>This is their maximum joint gain- what they could obtain if they could give up control of their actions to some coordination device, something like a stop sign or line-up in real life. 
<p>Knowing their maximum joint gain, how can Clever persuade Swift not to bid again, after the 2 cent bid? 
<p>Well, what if he pulled out a $10 spot, waved in front of Swift's nose, got her to smell the real coin of the realm, and handed it over to her after her no bid? Or put the $10. on the table and asked Swift for 2 cents? Put 2 cents on the table and asked Swift for a "loan" of $10.00, offering as collateral his 2 cents and promise not to bid if Swift went to 3 cent? 
<p>These commitment devices will allow Clever and Swift to share their joint gain. 
<p>But, there is no guarantee that once the individuals see what their joint gain could be that they will find the necessary commitment devices that will drive them to their joint goal. Individual caution may overwhelm good collective intentions. 
<p>Indeed, game theory's preoccupation with Nash equilibrium solutions has obscured this fact. 
<p>But repeat after me: 
<blockquote style="margin-right: 0px">
<blockquote style="margin-right: 0px">
<p align=left>"We will find joint gains as the result of coordination, then we will look for commitment devices to split the joint gain, because our strategies are probably off the Nash equilibrium path."</blockquote></blockquote>
<p>Does that do anything for you? </p>]]>
        
    </content>
</entry>

<entry>
    <title>Negotiations over Legal Fees</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/05/negotiations-over-legal-fees.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.43998</id>

    <published>2009-05-27T23:56:00Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-12T16:46:30Z</updated>

    <summary> Thanks to the Copy Writing Maven for this humorous take on negotiation. While, the Maven saw vendor relations, I saw lawyer to client relations. Very funny, especially the final scene....</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="How Would You Play That?" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="advertisingandmarketing" label="Advertising and Marketing" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="humor" label="Humor" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="lawyer" label="Lawyer" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/R2a8TRSgzZY&amp;color1=0xb1b1b1&amp;color2=0xcfcfcf&amp;hl=en&amp;feature=player_embedded&amp;fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/R2a8TRSgzZY&amp;color1=0xb1b1b1&amp;color2=0xcfcfcf&amp;hl=en&amp;feature=player_embedded&amp;fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
<p>Thanks to the Copy Writing Maven for this humorous take on negotiation.  While, the Maven saw vendor relations, I saw <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawyer" title="Lawyer" rel="wikipedia">lawyer</a> to client relations.</p>
<p>Very funny, especially the final scene.</p>

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<entry>
    <title>Threats in an Abundant World</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/2009/05/stumbling-on-happiness-daniel-1.html" />
    <id>tag:bizop.ca,2009:/blog/how_would_you_play_that//31.43994</id>

    <published>2009-05-21T23:01:14Z</published>
    <updated>2009-06-12T16:46:30Z</updated>

    <summary> Our national gloom is real enough, but it isn&apos;t a matter of insufficient funds. It&apos;s a matter of insufficient certainty. Americans have been perfectly happy with far less wealth than most of us have now, and we could quickly...</summary>
    <author>
        <name>admin</name>
        
    </author>
    
        <category term="How Would You Play That?" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
        <category term="Mind, Brain, and Decisions" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category" />
    
    <category term="behavior" label="Behavior" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="behavioraleconomics" label="Behavioral economics" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="business" label="Business" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="dangilbert" label="Dan Gilbert" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="decisiontheory" label="Decision theory" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="economic" label="Economic" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="gametheory" label="Game theory" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="investing" label="Investing" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="nonsufficientfunds" label="Non-sufficient funds" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    <category term="socialsciences" label="Social Sciences" scheme="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag" />
    
    <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://bizop.ca/blog/how_would_you_play_that/">
        <![CDATA[<p><object width="334" height="326"><param name="movie" value="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="wmode" value="transparent"><param name="bgColor" value="#ffffff"> <param name="flashvars" value="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/embed/DanGilbert_2005G-embed_high.flv&amp;su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/DanGilbert-2005G.embed_thumbnail.jpg&amp;vw=320&amp;vh=240&amp;ap=0&amp;ti=420"><embed src="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf" pluginspace="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" bgcolor="#ffffff" width="334" height="326" allowfullscreen="true" flashvars="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/embed/DanGilbert_2005G-embed_high.flv&amp;su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/DanGilbert-2005G.embed_thumbnail.jpg&amp;vw=320&amp;vh=240&amp;ap=0&amp;ti=420"></embed></object><br />
<p>Our <a href="http://www.randomhouse.com/kvpa/gilbert/blog/200905what_you_dont_know_makes_you_n_1.html">national gloom is real enough</a>, but it isn't a matter of <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-sufficient_funds" title="Non-sufficient funds" rel="wikipedia">insufficient funds</a>. It's a matter of insufficient certainty. Americans have been perfectly happy with far less wealth than most of us have now, and we could quickly become those Americans again -- if only we knew we had to.</p><br />
<p><a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Gilbert_%28businessman%29" title="Dan Gilbert (businessman)" rel="wikipedia">Dan Gilbert</a> is championing standard <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_theory" title="Decision theory" rel="wikipedia">decision theory</a>, arguing that the inherent failure to update our value functions according to standard decision theory is a serious error.</p></p>

<p>Gilbert has a nice a push back against current <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics" title="Behavioral economics" rel="wikipedia">behavioral economics</a> - which celebrates all deviations from reasonable <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavior" title="Behavior" rel="wikipedia">behavior</a>.  Gilbert makes some important observations about <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_distribution" title="Bernoulli distribution" rel="wikipedia">Bernoulli</a>'s decision theory: the last 200 years have given us a number of compelling stories about why we deviate from the simple ranking formula, rank of decision = chance * value of outcome.  But, in the end these stories are not ones we wish to hold on to.  The deviations are part of an anthropological past that did not require us to do much more than tell stories.  No records of value and chances need to enter into our vocabulary on a daily basis.</p>
<p>Gilbert cogently makes the point that we are bad at evaluating both chance, substituting ease of recollection for calculation, and valuing outcomes, by using comparative frames which won't exist after we make our choice. </p>
<p> For example, we may pick the larger <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stereophonic_sound" title="Stereophonic sound" rel="wikipedia">stereo</a> system because as compared to the smaller sound system, it simply doesn't compete. </p>
<p>But, at home, there is not smaller sound system to highlight the larger system's <a class="zem_slink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage" title="Comparative advantage" rel="wikipedia">comparative advantage</a>.  This is an important observation: we choose between comparable objects, a decision complete with framing effects: but reasonable choice requires that what we end up is an outcome that sells itself because that outcome must stand alone once we pick it from the others.</p>

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